AFTER DONBAS, WILL PUTIN SET HIS SIGHTS ON ODESA AND THE LINKUP WITH TRANSNISTRIA?
Colonel Dorcha Lee (retd)*
The ‘fog of battle’ has cleared, and it is now possible to anticipate the next phase of the war in Ukraine. For the past ten weeks, the Russians have retained the initiative and are making slow, but steady, advances in the Donbas region. With the capture of Lysychansk, the Russians completed their control of the Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian defence of Severodonetsk and nearby Lysychansk, delayed the Russian advance by about a month, but at a high price. A conservative estimate is that about a quarter to a third of the original four brigade force, or about 3000 to 4000 Ukrainian soldiers, were either killed or wounded. At that time, President Zelenskyy admitted that every day of the war one hundred Ukrainian soldiers were being killed and five hundred wounded, mostly by Russian artillery.
There was an operational silence on the withdrawal from Lysychansk back to the next defensive line 85km to the West, on the high ground around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, in the Donetsk Oblast. For the past five weeks Russian forces have been moving slowly moving towards this area, heading south from Kharkiv and north from Donetsk City in a pincer movement that could yet trap the bulk of the Ukrainian forces, in Western Donbas. Heavy fighting has been reported last week near Vuhlehirska about 30 miles Northeast of Donetsk City and Russian forces have captured Ukraine’s second largest coal-burning power station located there. The capture or control of Ukraine’s power stations has been a key Russian objective since the beginning of the invasion. The Russian capture of Vuhlehirska also facilitates the southern pincer movement against the Ukrainian forces.
To complete the Russian takeover of the Donbas region, they will still have to take Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, before sufficient western heavy artillery arrives to even the balance of power. Russian superiority in artillery, at a ratio of 10:1, still dominates the battlefield. Moreover, this month, the ground is hard enough for possible armour advances by the Russians who also have tank superiority. There are signs that the final battle in Donetsk Oblast is close, with combat intensifying on the high ground around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Moreover, on Sunday, 31st July, President Zelenskyy ordered the evacuation of civilians from the Donetsk area. On Sunday, also there were reports that some Russian forces in Donbas are already being redeployed to Kherson, Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia.
The Russians have resumed sporadic artillery fire on Kharkiv, but it does not appear to be a new attempt to capture the city. Ukrainian forces have counter-attacked, with mixed results, in an effort to push back the Russians beyond artillery range.
The Russians remain in complete control of the new land corridor from Rostov-on-Don, in Russia, through Donbas, all the way to Crimea. Two hundred and fifty miles to the West of Donbas, the capture of Kherson and of Nova Kakhova by Russian forces, which restored the flow of water from the Dnieper River into the North Crimea Canal, blocked since 2014, is being contested by local Ukrainian counter-attacks. In the past month, while preoccupied by the war in Donbas, Russia has lost ground in the Kherson area. As this analysis is being filed, preparations are under way for a major Ukrainian counter-attack in an all out effort to recapture Kherson. If this happens it will be a great morale boost for Ukraine and may end Putin’s chance to take Odesa and link up with Transnistria.
On the other hand, the Russians may hold out in Kherson, especially as the war in Donbas appears to be ending, and if the Russian forces switching from the Donetsk area arrive on time.
Assuming that the war in Donbas ends in the next coming weeks, and that the Russians are still holding out in Kherson, the Russians have three possible options, any two of which appear feasible with their current capabilities:- They could either:-
— -Advance from Zaporizhzhia and take the river towns of Dnipro and Kremenchuk, to cut off all Ukrainian forces in the East,
— -Reinforce and consolidate their control of Kherson and Nova Kakhova, and/or
— -Take Odesa and link up with the Russian forces in Transnistria.
However, to achieve all three objectives, Putin needs a lot more troops on the ground than he has right now. He may have to resort to partial mobilisation. The Russian General Staff have been urging him to mobilise, but Putin is reluctant to do so, for fear of losing popular support for his ‘military operation’ in Ukraine. Of course, he may decide to halt operations at this point, to avoid mobilisation, and settle for what he has got.
But if he decides to press on and take Odesa, and link up to Transnistria, several factors will have to be taken into account. First, the few landing areas around Odesa make capturing this city port by sea, exceptionally hazardous. The port itself at Odesa is heavily mined. The current consensus among defence analysts is that the best way to take Odesa, is a land operation from the North, supported by an amphibious operation in the port area. The key to this manoeuvre is to cross the Pivdenni Buh River at, or north of, Mykolaiv. (See Map Kherson area). The Russian missile attacks on Mykolaiv in the past few days may be the prelude to such a manoeuvre.
Map of Kherson Area 27 July
Since earlier attempts by the Russians to take Mykolaiv have failed, the better option would be to block and by-pass Mykolaiv and cross the river higher to the North. Once across this river, their land forces will most likely divide in two, with one column racing west towards the Moldovan Border and the other switching south to attack Odesa from the north. When/if they reach the northern suburbs of Odesa, they will be able to pin down the Ukrainian forces defending the city. It remains to be seen how this operation would be affected by the Turkish-backed UN agreement, of 22 July, that would allow Ukrainian grain to be exported from Odesa. The ‘Grain Initiative’ operation began on Sunday and the first shipment, bound for Beirut, successfully navigated through to the Black Sea.
However, if the Russians succeed in taking Odesa, they would be in a strong position to negotiate. The capture of Odesa and the link up to Transnistria would mean that Ukraine would be cut off from both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe, would be landlocked. To continue exporting from Odesa, Ukraine would have to agree to conditions laid down by Russia. Both Ukraine and Moldova could then be ‘Finlandised’, that is, restricted in the conduct of their foreign policies, as happened to Finland after WW2.
Should Russia win the next round of this conflict, at what point will Ukraine be forced to negotiate? Certain western sources, not the US or the UK Administrations, are signalling that the west would back a possible Ukrainian decision to concede territorial loss in return for its ‘freedom’. Such signals weaken the Ukrainian negotiating position even before a general ceasefire is agreed. On Friday (22nd July) President Zelenskyy, perhaps encouraged by the arrival of western artillery in Ukraine, re- iterated that there would be no ceasefire until all captured territories had been reclaimed.
Expectations back in late May were that the arrival of US HYMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Launching Systems) in mid-July would turn the tide of battle. However, by mid- July only eight HYMARS were reported as operational, with eight more expected by about now. The Ukrainian General Staff correctly estimated that, to achieve artillery parity with the Russians, they would need 100 HYMARS and an additional 200 x 155m Howitzers. So far, the effect of the few, currently operational, HYMARS is only tactical, and not yet sufficient to have a strategic impact on the outcome of the war.
Also, HYMARS are not totally invulnerable, as they need top cover protection against Russian air attacks. To turn the tide of war in their favour, in my opinion, Ukraine needs combat aircraft to mount effective counter-attacks, especially to support their operations in the Kherson area. It remains to be seen if, and when, the West will beef up the Ukrainian Airforce.
Without some, as yet unforeseen intervention, the War is set to continue through the Autumn and the Winter.
The former Swedish Prime Minister, Carl Bildt, summed up the situation very well in his recent comment:-
“If Russia stops fighting, it will be the end of the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine stops fighting, it will be the end of Ukraine”.
*Colonel Dorcha Lee, defence analyst (Navan, Ireland. 1/8/2022)
See Maps below.
Map of Eastern Ukraine 27 July
Map current situation in Southern Ukraine 27 July
