Prioritising Threats to Irish National Security and Defence

Colonel Dorcha Lee (Retd)

State security agencies keep threats to national security and defence under constant review. The main threats are broadly known, but their prioritisation is often not made public. This is partially due to the near constant changes in the factors that influence threat prioritisation. Moreover, in some cases, it may not be in the national security interest to reveal such assessments. Understandably, our political leaders would not want to frighten the public unduly, by harping on at the terrible things that might happen.

However, shielding the public about threats to national security and defence is not good either. As it is, the Irish public’s detachment from national security issues is a real concern. It is so total that some still question why we need to spend money on defence at all, when, supposedly, “we have no enemies, and no one will invade us”.

The starting position to answer this question, is to identify, as best we can, what are the threats we should be concerned about and to list them in order of priority, in a way the public can readily understand. The list below is presented in order of immediacy and specific for Ireland but would still broadly apply to many Western European nations. Of course, the Defence Forces would only be the lead-agency in dealing with some of these threats but would be in a supporting role for the rest.

Threat Number 1, or top of the list, is, no surprise, cyber-attacks, which could, in time, lead to full blown cyber warfare. The cyber-attack on the HSE seriously delayed diagnosis and treatment for tens of thousands of patients which will result in the deaths of an unspecified number of patients over the months and years to come. The overall cyber threat will remain until technology develops to the point where the precise origin of cyber-attacks can be identified in real time, and neutralised.

Threat Number 2 combines epidemics and pandemics. Covid19 has already killed over 5,600 of our people. In an extreme situation, where a killer virus is resistant to treatment, or vaccination, martial law may be necessary to avoid a total collapse of society.

Threat Number 3 is international terrorism, which peaked about seven years ago, but which foreign intelligence agencies still rate as being at medium threat level. That threat is currently considered by the Government to be low in Ireland, but we still remain a ‘soft’ target and, increasingly so, as other affected countries step up their security, making us an easier target.

Threat Number 4 is internal security, which has to be listed, probably until the constitutional situation in Ireland is finally resolved and all subversive activities have ended. It would also include the threat posed by maritime drug trafficking, ricin attacks, and other situations where the Gardaí would require support from the Defence Forces.

Threat Number 5 is climate change and environmental disasters. As the planet heats up and the polar icecaps melt, we can expect rising seas and extreme weather events. Not to mention environmental warfare; the technology already exists to control the weather over limited locations.

Threat Number 6 includes inter-state and intra-state conflicts. These currently do not affect us directly, but we do share an indirect threat with other nations, as a consequence of our involvement in international peace support operations.

Threat Number 7 includes threats from weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear, attacks on Ireland, or which indirectly may affect Ireland. It could include accidents at nuclear power stations where fallout could contaminate Irish centres of population, livestock and crops.

Threat Number 8 groups the threats to communications, supply lines and trade routes. This would include threats to the transatlantic cables that come ashore off our West coast, potential international piracy threats to Irish shipping on the high seas, and threats to our national telecommunications and transport systems at home.

Threat Number 9 is uncontrolled migration which is presently low, but which could increase due to demographic upheavals, indirectly precipitated by climate change, or resource wars.

Threat Number 10 is the, currently very remote, possibility of invasion. Here we must look to history and remember, if it happened before, it could happen again. In the past hundred years, every country in Europe was either invaded or under direct threat of invasion.

The over the horizon threats are too remote to enter my top ten list, but they would include extra-terrestrial threats from asteroids, comets and solar flares. They could also include threats from artificial intelligence and, to keep Discovery Channel viewers happy, alien invasion. Don’t just take my word for it. Even the late Dr Stephan Hawking regarded these latter two threats to be the most serious of all.

So, there you have it. Sleep well!