Ukraine On The Edge
Col Dorcha Lee (Ret’d)
The Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, has announced the decision to end the military build-up and withdraw forces from the Ukraine Eastern Border area and from Crimea. However, tanks and heavy artillery of Russia’s 41st Army will be left behind until the joint Russian-Belarusian Zapid 2021 exercises take place in September. He claims that the troop movements and deployments were normal military exercises. In my opinion, given the locations chosen for the exercise, this was more than just a training event, but was also an actual rehearsal for a possible future military intervention in Ukraine.
Speculation that the build-up was only to put pressure on the US, for an early Biden-Putin summit, is simply not credible. To suggest that it was, is a serious misreading of the situation. It should be pointed out that Russia’s strategic objectives have always been clear. There is a continuity from Tsarist times, though the Soviet period, up to the present. The long-term strategic objectives are to restore Russian hegemony over those countries which were formerly part of the Russian Empire. President Putin is a Russian nationalist who believes, like many of the Russian people, that Ukraine and Crimea are really Russian.
Ukraine’s claim to sovereignty over Crimea is internationally recognised. However, Crimea was part of Russia since 1783, as a result of the Russo-Turkish War ( (1768–1774). Crimea was handed over by the USSR to Ukraine, in 1954, by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet. This handover was rescinded in 1992 by the Russian Parliament.
Agreed, any change in its status should have made by the Crimean people. The 2014 military occupation by Russia, followed by a ‘shotgun’ referendum that did not meet democratic standards, does not change its current legal status as a part of Ukraine. At the same time, the international community’s economic sanctions have not persuaded the Russians to withdraw from the peninsula. Moreover, opinion polls do show that a majority of Crimeans are happy with the Russian takeover.
The biggest immediate problem for Crimea is the shortage of water. Pre-2014, Crimea got 85% to 90% of its water from the Dnieper River, regulated by a dam in the Khersen region of Southern Ukraine. Ever since then, Ukraine has stopped the water supply to Crimea. After a prolonged drought, the resultant water shortages in Crimea are getting more acute despite extensive deep well digging and desalination by the Russians.
Military action by Russia to secure water for the Crimea cannot be ruled out. At the height of the recent build-up, the Russians had about 40,000 troops at least in Crimea, with the capability of advancing North and taking the Khersen area. However, the Ukrainians also have the capability of making it difficult for the Russians to remain. The logical military solution would be for Russia to launch a secondary attack from Eastern Ukraine Donbass area. This operation could be limited to containing the Ukrainian forces in the East
The Russian build-up on the East Ukraine Border also reportedly totalled about 40,000 troops, which would be sufficient for a limited strike. The indicated strength of the Russian forces is a rough guideline of their capability. On the 12th Apr, Ukrainian sources put the total figure of Russian forces at about 80,000, of which 50,000 were ‘new’ troops. The Russians announced on the 20th Apr that they had approximately 120,000 on the Border. Was this figure inflated to increase psychological pressure on the Ukrainians?
Some analysts are estimating the real figure to be around 100,000. They note that apart from a few specialist units, the Ukrainians have not mobilised their main reserve forces. On Euronews, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said that the Russian build-up was around 150,000. Given that he would be kept in the picture by the EU Military Committee and the EU Military Staff, who have access to satellite data, this is quite an extraordinary figure, which remains unexplained to date. If true, then we have to reconsider Russian military capabilities and intentions. With this extra amount, the Russians would have the capability to strike due Westwards to Dnipro on the Dnieper River.
The Dnieper River is the dominant topographical feature in the Ukraine. The fourth largest river in Europe, it flows into Northern Ukraine near Chernobyl, then down to Kiev, where it turns South Eastward to the city of Dnipro, before heading South to Khersen and on to the Black Sea. It is very wide for most of its 1,000 km journey through Ukraine, more like a chain of lakes connected by a river.
The Borrell figure of 150,000 could open up the prospect of Russian forces crossing the Dnieper at Dnipro and heading down the Western bank to link up with its forces coming North from Crimea at, or close to, Kherson, but would still not be enough to create a sustainable bridgehead on the Western side of the Dnieper River. It could , however, force the Ukrainians to settle on the water issue much more quickly.
This analyst did not pick up on any movement of bridging equipment in either of the two build-ups. This could be an indicator that the Russians are not planning a large scale river crossing. Nor is there any indication that Russia was thinking about widening the conflict further. If we were to consider an all-out war, the obvious additional (third) route of advance would be from Kursk to Kiev, splitting the country in two, and, for sure, risking NATO intervention.
Russia is consolidating its presence in the Donbas Region and Crimea, but if Ukraine’s application to join NATO were speeded up, it might be tempted into a more robust military response. In the meantime, the Ukrainian Army needs a lot more Javelin anti-tank missiles. It could also talk to the Turks about acquiring their drones, which located Armenian armour so successfully during the recent short war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
President Putin is facing the legislative (Duma) elections on the third Sunday of September. A military show of strength over the Ukraine/ Crimea situation, closer to the election date, would reinforce his image as a strong leader.
It could well turn out to be a long hot summer after all.
